This study examines how Russia’s hydrocarbon export patterns and market diversification developed from 2019 to 2023 amid significant geopolitical changes. The onset of war in 2022 drastically transformed Russia’s global trade relationships. In response to major economic disruptions, understanding shifts in Russia’s trade balance—especially for mineral fuels and hydrocarbons—became essential. With international sanctions, a redirection of energy flows, and a reorganization of trade alliances, Russia’s market dynamics have been fundamentally changed. An analysis of trade statistics from organizations such as the OEC, OECD, and OPEC illustrates how these geopolitical pressures have compelled Russia to reconsider its export strategies—most notably by shifting its focus from European to Asian markets—and what this means for global energy security.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) (HS Code 271111 – Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, natural gas)
In 2023, the export data for liquefied natural gas highlights significant shifts in global trade dynamics. Even under sanctions, the European Union continued to import Russian LNG, differing from its approach to pipeline gas. Although major European countries like France, Spain, and Belgium maintained their imports, they did so with a reduced reliance. The inherent flexibility of LNG shipping allowed Russia to retain a foothold in European markets. Meanwhile, Asian markets led the demand, with China and Japan capturing 26.1% and 21.1% of exports, respectively, while India’s share remained minimal at 1.5%. Despite some key markets—such as Poland and Japan—experiencing export value declines of 38% and 23%, respectively, from 2022 to 2023, Russia still ranked as the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, with an export value nearing USD 19.78 billion.
Img. 1. List of importing markets for the product exported by Russian Federation in 2023. Product: 271111 Natural gas, liquefied
Liquefied Propane (HS Code 271112 – Liquefied propane of a purity of <= 90% (excl. for undergoing chemical transformation))
Russia exported $394.6 million in liquefied propane (811,839 tons) in 2023, representing 0.3% of global exports. Poland (37.6%), China (15.4%), and India (7.2%) together accounted for 60.2% of exports. Despite a 36% annual drop in export value since 2019, India’s imports jumped by 413% in 2023, indicating a strategic shift toward Asian markets. Russia also strengthened ties with Central Asian and Caucasian nations, including Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, to compensate for decreased European demand.
Img. 2. List of importing markets for the product exported by Russian Federation in 2023 Product: 271112 Propane, liquefied. Growth in exported value between 2022-2023 (%, p.a.)
Liquefied Butanes (HS Code 271113 – Liquefied butane of a purity of <= 90% (excl. for undergoing chemical transformation))
The export of liquefied butanes (excluding those with a purity ≥95% of N-butane or isobutane) by the Russian Federation in 2023 reflects significant shifts in market dynamics, with India emerging as the largest importer, accounting for 35.7% of total exports valued at USD 51,783,000. China is a key destination, contributing 17.3% of exports, while Bulgaria and Poland each play essential roles with shares of 14.7% and 8.9%, respectively. Despite an overall decline in export value by 17% annually between 2019 and 2023, India demonstrated robust growth, increasing its imports by 99%. Meanwhile, Russia strengthened its trade ties with smaller markets in Central Asia and the Caucasus, such as Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Tajikistan, shifting from traditional European buyers to Asia and post-Soviet states.
Img. 3. List of importing markets for the product exported by Russian Federation in 2023. Product: 271113 Butanes, liquefied (excl. of a purity of >= 95% N-butane or isobutane). Share in Russian Federation’s exports (%)
Liquefied Ethylene, Propylene, Butylene, and Butadiene (HS Code 271114 – Ethylene, propylene, butylene and butadiene, liquefied)
In 2023, Russia’s exports of liquefied ethylene, propylene, butylene, and butadiene totaled $92,402,000, accounting for 6.5% of global exports for these products and ranking 16th worldwide. The export market was highly concentrated, with Poland (50.4%) and Germany (44.6%) making up 95% of total exports. Serbia saw a 19% growth from 2022 to 2023; however, the heavy concentration of exports (0.97) and high tariffs in markets like Tajikistan (30%) reveal vulnerabilities in Russia’s supply chain strategy. Though there was an overall 4% annual growth in export value from 2019 to 2023, a slight decline of 8% occurred from 2022 to 2023.
Img. 4. List of importing markets for the product exported by Russian Federation in 2023. Product: 271114 Ethylene, propylene, butylene and butadiene, liquefied. Unit value (USD/unit)
Natural Gas in Gaseous State (HS Code 271121 – Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, natural gas)
In 2023, Russia’s natural gas exports in gaseous form experienced a significant decline, with volumes decreasing by approximately 42% compared to 2021. This downturn was mainly driven by a marked reduction in pipeline gas supplies to Europe, which fell by 120 billion cubic meters, as European nations sought alternative energy sources amid geopolitical tensions. Consequently, Russia’s share of pipeline gas in EU imports plummeted from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023. In contrast, China emerged as a major importer of Russian natural gas, with imports increasing from 16.5 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 23.0 billion cubic meters in 2023, reflecting Russia’s strategic shift towards Asian markets.
Img. 5. List of importing markets for the product exported by Russian Federation in 2023. Product: 271121 – Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, natural gas. Value exported in 2023 (USD thousand)
The prices of Russia’s key liquefied hydrocarbon exports in 2023 reflect volatile market dynamics shaped by geopolitical shifts and supply chain adjustments. For natural gas, liquefied (271111), unit values averaged $640 per ton, with a 36% annual growth between 2019 and 2023. However, a sharp 38% decline occurred in 2022–2023, likely tied to reduced European demand amid sanctions and diversified Asian sourcing.
Propane (271112) had a unit value of $486 per ton and has grown -15% annually since 2019. This growth was exacerbated by a 36% drop in 2022–2023 as key markets like Poland and Germany faced supply disruptions or tariff barriers.
For butanes (271113) , unit prices held at $493 per ton despite a -17% annual value decline since 2019, driven by oversupply in Asian markets and tariff pressures (e.g., 5% in India, 30% in Tajikistan). However, ethylene and propylene derivatives (271114) maintained higher unit values ($650/ton) with 4% annual growth, though Poland’s exports fell -8% in 2022–2023 due to EU energy diversification efforts.
In 2023, Russia’s hydrocarbon export landscape underwent significant changes, notably impacting the average export distances for various products. Historically, a considerable portion of Russia’s oil exports was directed toward Europe, with 59% of seaborne liquid fuel exports reaching European markets in 2021. However, by the first three quarters of 2023, these exports to Europe had fallen to less than 0.9 million barrels per day, down from 3.4 million barrels per day in 2021. This decline was mainly due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions, which prompted Russia to shift its exports to more distant markets such as China, India, and countries in the Middle East, Africa, and South America. As a result, the average export distance for Russian hydrocarbons increased. Products like liquefied natural gas (271111) and butanes (271113) show longer average distances due to their export to Asian markets. In contrast, ethylene derivatives (271114) and other gaseous hydrocarbons (271119) have shorter averages because they focus on European markets.
Summary of Average Export Distances:
• 271111 Natural gas, liquefied: 4,421 km
• 271112 Propane, liquefied: 1,667 km
• 271113 Butanes, liquefied: 3,445 km
• 271114 Ethylene, propylene, butylene, and butadiene, liquefied (excluding ethylene of purity ≥ 95%): 1,653 km
• 271119 Gaseous hydrocarbons, liquefied, n.e.s.: 1,597 km
• 271121 Natural gas in gaseous state: 4,734 km